Machine learning competitions are susceptible to intentional overfitting. Numerai
proposes Numeraire, a new cryptographic token that can be used in a novel auction
mechanism to make overfitting economically irrational. The auction mechanism
leads to equilibrium bidding behavior that reveals rational data scientists’ confi-
dence in their models’ ability to perform well on new data. The auction mechanism
also yields natural arguments for the economic value of a Numeraire token.
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